Grain Commodity Futures Weekend Update

This week has been tough for predicting the grain commodity futures markets.

The indicators I follow are pretty accurate, as anyone can tell if they have been following my blog. I do make a high number of accurate predictions, but I seem to have made a mistake this week.

The grains do usually rally up till harvest, before making a drop, but with the indicators moving so low, I expected an early drop. It didn’t happen. Wheat shot up and probably pulled the other grains up with it. I guess everyone thinks the “so called drought” will affect the harvest. With the indicators moving so low, it could mean that when harvest does come, there could be a major drop in grain prices at harvest time!

It is still short term because harvest should come around July and August.

For the shorter term, I hope you had your stops set, like I have been preaching. I don’t care how accurate you are, eventually you will run into something like this and end up on the losing side. A stop will get you out. I have also talked about buying opposing options. If you buy a contract on a commodity, you could buy an opposing option.(I.E. Long a wheat futures and buy a wheat put option.) If you get stopped out on your contract, you still have your option making money on the other direction, (which would have been good with wheat this time) It also helps to invest in a few different commodities, so a losing position can be offset by a winning position. If you are starting out with a small account, you may only be able to enter one position at a time, and if you lose some you will just have to start over. If you win, I would suggest keeping the money in your account until you can diversify a little.

Chicago wheat futures broke above resistance and shot straight up. Wheat could be ready for a pullback now, but it has been in a strong trend so be careful.

Corn futures finally broke out of the sideways trend. If you went long with corn, just keep a close stop. It could make a good move but it’s hard to say how far it will go right now.

I think oat futures could still drop, but with the other grains moving up, I would be careful. Oats may still have a jump left in them.

Soybean futures held steady for most of the week and jumped up on Friday. I still expect a good drop in soybeans but I don’t know if they will follow through with more of a move up first so just be careful and keep a close stop.

Rough rice also made a jump up. It doesn’t appear that it will continue the move up, but keep a close stop.

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July Chicago wheat closed the week at 606.4, up 79Â¢ for the week.
July corn closed the week at 419.0, up 37Â¢ for the week.
July oats closed the week at 292.0, even for the week.
July soybeans closed the week at 847.2, up 25.8Â¢ for the week.
July rough rice closed the week at 10.720, up .635Â¢ for the week.
grain, trading, commodities, futures, investing, markets